potatoes.meIndia's Quiet Crisis: Fresh Potato Exports Are in Freefall
India's fresh (ware) potato exports fell to their lowest level since 2021 in 2025 — down about 20% by volume and 22.5% by value — despite a record 58.6 million tonne harvest, indicating the problem is weakening buyer demand and market competition rather than a supply shortfall.
The paradox
A record harvest, a shrinking export trade
India harvested an estimated 58.6 million tonnes of potatoes in 2024–25, confirmed by the Union Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare — the country's largest-ever crop, even after a downward revision of 1.6 million tonnes from an earlier estimate. Despite that abundance, fresh, table-grade potato — what the trade calls ware potato — exports fell to their lowest level in four years. According to IndianPotato.com, frozen fries have drawn attention as a growth story, but the older, larger fresh-export trade that supplies neighbours like Nepal, Sri Lanka and the UAE has been quietly contracting.
Data breakdown
The numbers behind the decline
For calendar year 2025, India's ware potato exports came in at about 4,13,076 tonnes, down 20.0% on 2024 and the lowest annual figure since 2021. The value of that trade fell even faster — to roughly ₹767 crore (about US$90 million), a drop of 22.5%. The average ware export price in December 2025 was $136 (₹13,025) per tonne, down 21.4% year-on-year.
A second measure, the rolling twelve months to January 2026, shows the same pattern: exports fell 17.4%, from 5,12,688 tonnes a year earlier to 4,23,441 tonnes — a loss of nearly 89,000 tonnes in a single year.
- Calendar 2025 ware exports: ~4,13,076 tonnes, down 20.0%
- Calendar 2025 export value: ~$80M (₹767 crore), down 22.5%
- December 2025 average export price: $136 (₹13,025)/tonne, down 21.4% year-on-year
- Twelve months to January 2026: 4,23,441 tonnes, down 17.4% (a loss of ~89,000 tonnes)
The mechanism
Why demand, not supply, is the problem
The instinct when exports fall is to look for a shortfall at home. That explanation does not hold here: the 2024–25 crop was a record 58.6 million tonnes, so there was no shortage of potato to send abroad. If supply was abundant and exports still fell, the constraint sits with buyers — India's traditional fresh-potato customers either bought less or bought from another origin. A bad harvest fixes itself the next season; a market that has turned away has to be won back.
Country breakdown
Market by market: where the tonnes went
The decline is not evenly spread across India's export destinations, based on the twelve months to January 2026:
- Nepal: 2,36,068 tonnes, down 1.4% — more than half of all fresh exports, with a January 2026 surge of 22,307 tonnes (up 43.4% year-on-year)
- United Arab Emirates: 14,850 tonnes, down 5.6%
- Sri Lanka: 11,325 tonnes, up 32.0% — the lone growth market
- Vietnam: 10,403 tonnes, down 25.1%, including four consecutive months with zero shipments through January 2026
- All destinations: 4,23,441 tonnes, down 17.4%
Nepal alone accounts for more than half of India's fresh potato exports, giving the trade a stable anchor but also a single point of dependence. Indonesia and Oman also declined over the period, with Oman's off-take falling from already-nominal levels. Vietnam's shift from steady buyer to zero shipments for a third of the year stands out as the sharpest single data point in the set.
Open questions
What it would take to turn it around
The source material treats the causes behind buyer behaviour cautiously, noting the data shows demand has weakened but is less clear on precisely why. It points to several plausible pressures: competition from other origins on a low-margin, weight-heavy commodity; the cost and reliability of cold chain, transport, phytosanitary clearances and consistent grading; and the concentration risk of resting more than half of fresh exports on one neighbour.
Three responses are identified as the levers available: diversifying away from over-dependence on Nepal while protecting growing markets like Sri Lanka; competing on reliability — consistent grade, dependable cold chain, clean phytosanitary paperwork and on-time delivery — rather than only on price; and reading demand signals early enough to respond before a market is lost, rather than discovering the decline in the following year's trade data.
A record domestic harvest did not translate into stronger exports, showing that India's fresh-potato trade is vulnerable to demand shifts and over-dependence on a single market (Nepal), with implications for how growers, traders and policymakers respond to falling realisations even when production is strong.
Why are India's fresh potato exports falling when production is at a record?
Because the constraint is demand, not supply. India's 2024–25 crop was a record 58.6 million tonnes, so there was no shortage of potato to export. Fresh (ware) exports still fell to their lowest level since 2021, meaning buyers bought less or bought elsewhere rather than India having less to sell.
How much did India's ware potato exports fall in 2025?
For calendar 2025, fresh potato exports fell about 20% to roughly 4,13,076 tonnes — the lowest since 2021 — with value down 22.5% to about $80M (₹767 crore). Measured over the twelve months to January 2026, exports were down 17.4% to 4,23,441 tonnes, a loss of nearly 89,000 tonnes. The average export price in December 2025 was down 21.4% year-on-year.
Which markets did India lose?
Vietnam was the starkest example: volumes fell 25.1% and India shipped no fresh potato there for four consecutive months to January 2026. The UAE fell 5.6%, and Indonesia and Oman also declined. Nepal — more than half of India's fresh-potato exports — held roughly steady, down 1.4%. Sri Lanka was the exception, rising 32.0%.
Is the decline a price problem or a quality problem?
The data shows price falling sharply — the December export realisation was down more than a fifth — suggesting exporters were already discounting and still losing volume. Beyond price, fresh potato is sensitive to reliability factors such as cold chain, consistent grade, phytosanitary clearance and on-time delivery. Sri Lanka growing while Vietnam disappeared points to service and dependability, not just price, deciding who keeps the business.
What would help reverse the decline?
Three things stand out: diversifying away from over-dependence on Nepal so one market's swings do not sink the whole trade; competing on reliability — consistent quality, dependable cold chain and clean paperwork — rather than only on price; and reading demand signals early enough to defend markets before they are lost.
Currency converted at exchange rates as of July 9, 2026.
- India's Quiet Crisis: Fresh Potato Exports Are in Freefall — IndianPotato.com